Holster your weapons cowboys; they won't work in Somalia.

Somalia might be as lawless as the wild wild west, but the solution to this anarchy is certainly not force.

This post goes out to Robert Kaplan, Ikle, Abu Muqawama(with mad respect of course) who recently in the press have made alarmist remarks about potential links between pirates and AQ, and between Somalia and Afghanistan, hence justifying, or seemingly justifying, the use of force.

Most troublesome was Robert Kaplan's comment this morning on NPR about possible strikes on pirate safe havens along the Somali coast. (I also commented on his article in the NYTimes last weekend below.)

I was equally disappointed in you, Andrew Exum/ Abu Muqawama, (if you're reading which you probably aren't, also, I usually like what you have to say) and your responses on Charlie Rose last night with Robert Kaplan drawing a glaringly inaccurate parallel between Afghanistan and Pakistan and Somalia.

Somalia is not Afghanistan nor is it Pakistan. They are similar yes because they are failed states, but they have different histories, different current situations, and are different socially, economically and politically.

Force didn't work in 93 and it sure didn't work last year. The US and Ethiopia went in and kicked out the Islamic Courts - I'm not saying they were the greatest thing to happen to Somalia - but after their ouster they radicalized and became more violent and more pesky and created the increasingly problematic Al Shabab extremist movement.

I guarandamtee that if we start strikes on 'pirate havens' or military strikes in general in Somalia, we are going to pull (AQ) Al Qaeda there a lot faster than any pirate could in his dingy boat. It might also lead pirates to link up with Al Shabab and radicalize them.

Most importantly, pirates are criminals, motivated by financial gain; AQ is not. AQ is motivated by political and ideological causes mostly, against policies, occupation, oppression. (This point was also made this morning by a scholar on NPR this morning, can't remember his name, Kaplan was on too.)

Preventing pirate attacks will be long term social, economic and political development in Somalia. In the meantime the best we can do is contain and isolate this threat. I know this sounds cheesy, but we should look to how Obama and friends dealt with it: even keeled, tempered, not upping the ante, not making this a bigger deal that it is so as not to rally and radicalize others.

Abu Muqawama and the COIN (counterinsurgency people had always said they never want to fight but develop these strategy if they have to. This is not one of those situations.